Can England Win The World Cup?

December 4 2009 - England looked to have their greatest chance in 20 years to finally lift the World Cup again.

Fabio Capello's side had come off the back of an impressive qualifying campaign. The Italian had injected organisation, discipline and some much needed confidence into a limp Three Lions. Nine wins and a meaningless defeat to Ukraine gave England the third best qualifying record in Europe after Spain and Holland.

Few will quickly forget the home and away vanquishing of Steve McClaren's conquerors Croatia. The 5-1 home win and even more exciting 4-1 away victory confirmed that this was a side full of verve and purpose. In Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard, England boasted a triumvirate of match winners. Theo Walcott resembled a young Ryan Giggs, but with even more pace and a greater eye for goal.

Rooney bagged nine goals in qualifying and Lampard, Gerrard, Peter Crouch and Jermain Defoe all looked prolific. Indeed, confidence was so high that even Emile Heskey managed a goal against Kazakhstan.

A straightforward World Cup group of USA, Slovenia and Algeria served to confirm the whispers that had been spreading for months: England can win the World Cup.

Six months and five days later, the Three Lions are not roaring as loudly as they were.

Uninspired victories over Mexico, Japan and Platinum Stars have raised serious questions about England's chances in this 19th World Cup. The continued absence of Owen Hargreaves was exacerbated by injuries to Rio Ferdinand and David Beckham alongside fitness concerns over Gareth Barry.

Poor performances, injuries to key personnel and questions over the strength of England's squad have seen Capello's charges drop to fourth betting favourites.

With three days to go until Steven Gerrard leads England out against the USA in Rustenburg, the team are limping towards the starting blocks.

So, do they have any chance of lifting the trophy on July 11?

Yes, they have a chance. Whilst expectations have dampened significantly since December, most fans, players and pundits agree that England, whilst not the outright favourites, are part of a group of about five teams who have an outside chance of lifting the trophy.

To my mind, the three favourites are Spain, Argentina and Holland. Then come Brazil and following is a group consisting of Italy, Germany, Portugal, France and England. You may be interested to know that my two outside bets are Chile and Uruguay (Ivory Coast if Drogba is fit).
Spain and Argentina boast the two most talented squads in the competition. The quality of Spanish midfielders is unmatched: Iniesta, Xavi, Alonso, Silva, Fabregas, Busquets, Navas, Mata and Martinez. Add to those David Villa and Fernando Torres, and we are faced with justifiable favourites.

Argentina face a significant handicap in the shape of the former saviour. His brief tenure has revealed that Diego Maradona is no football coach. The impulsive and emotional "El Diego" has neither the tactical nous nor mental fortitude to effectively lead the Argentinian national side. But such is the talent at his disposal, that these shortcomings may not matter. A strike-force of Tevez, Higuain and the peerless Lionel Messi makes them my tip as winners.



Holland performed well throughout qualifying and after a solid Euro 2008 look well set to surprise people. Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder were two of Europe's finest performers this season and the high-tempo Dutch style of football is ideally suited to expose struggling sides like Italy and France. They should go far.

I am not putting Brazil in the top bracket because they are an efficient but unspectacular side. Too little is being made of their poor qualifying campaign, in which they topped the group by one point from Chile. This side will not play other teams off the park and do not pose the same creative threat that the three Rs of Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho did in 2002. Having said this, their experience, the talent of Kaka and Robinho, and Luis Fabiano's goals give them as good a chance as ever.

Germany, France, Italy and Portugal are shadows of their recent selves. Germany's lack of experience, Italy's failure to unearth a top centre forward, France's inept leadership and Portugal's over-reliance on Cristiano Ronaldo give each of them little more than an outside chance.

And so, belatedly, we come to England. The reality of their chances lies somewhere in the middle of the fatalism and optimism heard in the media.

A comfortable draw has benefited England hugely. They face a possible last 16 clash with Serbia and a potentially very winnable Quarter Final against France.

The squad is is no stronger than the 2002 and 2006 vintages. A prime Michael Owen and David Beckham would be welcomed by Fabio Capello, as would Sol Campbell's 2002 form. But, there are a handful of players who rival any in the world. Rooney and Ashley Cole are world class and Lampard, Gerrard and Terry are all exceptional when on form. The nucleus of this side can certainly take England past the Quarter Finals.

However, the problem lies in the supporting cast. Uncertainty over the goalkeeper combined with a weakness at right back and a chronic lack of pace amongst the remaining centre halves, creates concern.

Gareth Barry's fitness struggle has left Capello with an unbalanced midfield. If Barry is fit for the knockout stages, then a potential midfield of James Milner or Joe Cole on the left, Lampard and Barry playing centrally and Aaron Lennon on the right looks quite strong on paper.

But if Barry isn't fit, then England look to have a soft centre. The thought of Michael Carrick starting in this World Cup is one likely to cause dread amongst England fans.

Perhaps the biggest question of all is: Who should play with Rooney? Emile Heskey looks set to be given the nod but, given his woeful scoring record and poor form, the Aston Villa man is lucky to be in the squad. Crouch has an enviable eye for goal, but is too static to be Rooney's foil. Defoe is a good poacher, but I have doubts over his ability at the very highest level.



For most observers, the answer lies in playing Gerrard behind Rooney. This would allow Rooney to operate as England's spearhead, as he has been for Manchester United all season. This system allows for England's two most dangerous attacking players to occupy their best positions and work in tandem.

But, Capello has shown few signs that he will place his trust in this system. He is nothing if not a pragmatist and if a system works he will exploit it to the full. The Rooney Heskey pairing served him well in Qualifying so the signs are that he will persist with them.

There is no cause for mad panic just yet. Whilst recent form has been poor, England are in a decent position to go far in the tournament.

I foresee a Semi Final exit to Brazil or Holland. The friendly against Mexico was extremely revealing. It confirmed that, even given their greater organisation and compactness under Capello, England still struggle against sides who pass the ball well and do not surrender possession easily.

I can see England beating mediocre sides like France and having too much quality for possible Second Round opponents Serbia or Australia. But against cultured teams such as Holland, Brazil, Portugal, Argentina and Spain England simply surrender possession too easily to take control of the game.

However, I will add a caveat. If Wayne Rooney approaches his Manchester United form during the tournament, then anything is possible. Injury robbed him of a chance to define the outcome of Euro 2004 after looking lethal in the Group stages. After a trio of disappointments in major international tournaments (not qualifying for Euro 2008 counts), England's talisman can finally seal his reputation as one of the world's best.

Let Me Bend Your Ear

Darren Bent's stock fell during his spell at Tottenham - there is no denying it. After shelling out £16.5 million, Spurs were hoping for a rather more sizeable return than 25 goals in two seasons across all competitions.

However, with 23 league goals this season, the former Ipswich and Charlton striker has firmly punctured any doubts about his ability. The front man's achievements are made all the more remarkable when set against Sunderland's determined mediocrity.

And yet, with more Premier League goals to his name than any English player, bar Wayne Rooney, the 26-year-old looks set to miss out on Fabio Capello's World Cup squad. With the alternatives out of form, lacking goals or losing early season momentum, why won't Mr Capello pick him.

Capello has always maintained that he will only pick players who are fully fit and playing regularly for their clubs. The appointment of an England manager who picks on form, and not reputation, was welcome relief to those sceptics of the boys club mentality of the England camp under both Sven Goran Eriksson and Steve McLaren.

However, he seems to have gradually diverged from this initial promise. The repeated selections of Theo Walcott, David Beckham, Emile Heskey and, more understandably, John Terry disproves the notion that form is the decisive factor behind selection.

Having watched Jermain Defoe's early season form stall and Carlton Cole pik up niggling injuries, Fabio Capello has some questions to answer before picking his squad.

And so to Bent. His £10 million (possibly rising to £16.5 million) move to Sunderland raised eyebrows at the time. Steve Bruce, it seemed, wished to continue the same lavish, scattergun approach to transfers as his predecessor.

But Bent has outshone Kenwyne Jones in a very average Sunderland side. Whilst his club have underachieved, he has consistently been Sunderland's best performer.

He blends genuine pace and a keen eye for goal with a willingness to harry defenders. Indeed, after Michael Owen and Jermain Defoe, Bent is probably the most natural English goalscorer around.

These qualities led The Daily Telegraph's Henry Winter to identify him as an England star of the future by naming him in his 2006 squad of the year.

It doesn't take a genius to identify his pedigree - 141 goals in 336 appearances highlights a striker who has scored regularly at every club he has played for. That ratio is second only to Defoe of the current Premiership strikers eligible for England (and that includes Rooney).

The central criticism is a straightforward one: In five international appearances he is yet to score. This cannot be ignored, but with only two starts amongst those caps it is hardly worrying form.

He is by no means an established international forward, but nor is he less experienced than Agbonlahor or Cole. Lest we forget, Jermain Defoe's England career was largely unremarkable until the past 12 months.

A football phone in show this week criticised Bent for failing to shine against the big teams. This, it was said, was why Capello has overlooked him.

But hang on! Let's examine that argument.

This season he has scored in a 2-2 away draw against Manchester United, the opener in a 3-1 defeat to Chelsea in addition to winners against Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs. Any reputation he has earnt as a flat-track bully is at best undeserved and at worst woefully ignorant of the facts.

He does not offer defences the same physical challenges as Peter Crouch, Emile Heskey or Carlton Cole, but he is quicker and a more potent goalscorer than all three. Both Gabriel Agbonlahor and Theo Walcott have electrifying pace without the inherent footballing intelligence to go with it.

Whilst Bent does not offer the same obvious qualities as some of the other candidates, he represents a useful blend of all of them. Strikers with pace, strength, a natural eye for goal and a willingness to work for the team and bring others into play are all too rare. Fernando Torres and Didier Drogba are the high end examples.

I would have Bent in South Africa ahead of Heskey, Cole and Agbonlahor. Assuming Rooney and Defoe are certainties, I would bring Crouch and Bent as impact substitutes. This leaves a possible spot for a fifth striker. Perhaps Theo Walcott, as overrated as he is quick.

The case for Bent's inclusion is a strong one:

1. Second highest English Premiership goalscorerthis season.
2. An impressive mixture of pace, strength, work ethic and goals.
3. Has sustained a high level of performance for the last eight years.

So surely a coach who picks on form and not reputation would take him. Wouldn't he?

On Saturday I will be compiling my World Cup 23 and my predictions for Capello's 23.